Investment Timing Software Results

Online Analyzer, 30 Day Moving Average

The following table contains results from setting the Online Analyzer S&P 500 chart to tighter settings.  Those are:

  • Moving average = 30 days
  • Inner band setting = 20
  • Outer band setting = 22

Again the tighter settings result in more trades for a lesser amount per trade but a higher overall return.

  • Results
  • Decision Keys
Year Date Buy Sell Points Gain or Loss % Gain or Loss Dollar Amount Annual % Growth
Starting $           10,000  
2003 1/29 864          
  2/12   818 (46) -5.3% 9,468  
  3/12 804          
  3/25   874 70 8.7% 10,292  
  9/30 995          
  10/16   1050 55 5.5% 10,861 8.6%
2004 3/16 1104          
  4/7   1140 36 3.3% 11,215  
  5/17 1084          
  6/2   1124 40 3.7% 11,629  
  8/12 1063          
  10/6   1142 79 7.4% 12,493  
  10/22 1095          
  11/12   1184 89 8.1% 13,508 24.4%
2005 1/5 1183          
  3/4   1222 39 3.3% 13,954  
  3/28 1174          
  11/25   1268 94 8.0% 15,071 11.6%
2006 5/23 1256          
  7/3   1280 24 1.9% 15,359  
  7/18 1236          
  12/14   1425 189 15.3% 17,708 17.5%
2007 3/2 1387          
  5/9   1512 125 9.0% 19,303  
  6/12 1493          
  7/19   1553 60 4.0% 20,079  
  8/3 1450          
  8/24   1479 29 2.0% 20,481  
  8/28 1432          
  9/21   1525 93 6.5% 21,811  
  10/24 1515          
  10/31   1549 34 2.2% 22,300  
  11/12 1439          
  12/10   1515 76 5.3% 23,478 32.6%
2008 1/22 1310          
  2/1   1395 85 6.5% 25,002  
  3/10 1273          
  4/4   1370 97 7.6% 26,907  
  4/15 1334          
  4/29   1390 56 4.2% 28,036  
  6/11 1335          
  7/2   1261 (74) -5.5% 26,482  
  7/15 1214          
  7/23   1282 68 5.6% 27,965  
  9/15 1192          
  9/19   1255 63 5.3% 29,443  
  10/10 0          
  10/15 0          
  10/27 848          
  11/4   1005 157 18.5% 34,895  
  11/20 762          
  12/11   873 111 14.6% 39,978  
  12/21 840         70.3%
2009 1/7   906 66 7.9% 43,119  
  1/23 831          
  2/18   788 (43) -5.2% 40,888  
  3/5 682          
  3/27   815 133 19.5% 48,861  
  7/10 879          
  7/28   979 100 11.4% 54,420  
  10/2 1025          
  10/19   1198 173 16.9% 63,605  
  11/2 1042          
  11/18   1109 67 6.4% 67,695 69.3%
2010 2/9 1070          
  3/17   1166 96 9.0% 73,768  
  5/7 1110          
  6/18   1117 7 0.6% 74,234  
  7/6 1028          
  7/27   1113 85 8.3% 80,372  
  8/25 1055          
  9/16   1124 69 6.5% 85,628  
  11/17 1178         20.9%
2011 2/8   1323 145 12.3% 96,168  
  3/16 1256          
  4/6   1335 79 6.3% 102,217  
  6/10 1270          
  7/8   1343 73 5.7% 108,092  
  8/11 1120          
  9/1   1204 84 7.5% 116,199  
  10/3 1099          
  10/21   1238 139 12.6% 130,896  
  11/25 1158          
  12/9   1255 97 8.4% 141,860  
  12/19 1205         65.7%
2012 1/26   1318 113 9.4% 155,164  
  4/10 1358          
  5/1   1405 47 3.5% 160,534  
  5/22 1316          
  9/18   1459 143 10.9% 177,978  
  11/16 1359          
  12/20   1443 84 6.2% 188,979 33.2%
Year Date Buy Sell Dollar Amount MACD
Status
Other Decision Key
Starting $       10,000  

 

2003 1/29 864     Flat  
  2/12   818 9,468   Stopped out = 5%
  3/12 804       Price in dark green band
  3/25   874 10,292 Flat  
  9/30 995     Flat  
  10/16   1050 10,861 Flat  
2004 3/16 1104     Converge  
  4/7   1140 11,215   Price leaves sell bands
  5/17 1084     Converge  
  6/2   1124 11,629 Flat  
  8/12 1063     Converge  
  10/6   1142 12,493   Orange sell band
  10/22 1095     Flat  
  11/12   1184 13,508 Flat  
2005 1/5 1183       Price in dark green band
  3/4   1222 13,954 Flat  
  3/28 1174     Converge  
  11/25   1268 15,071   Price in dark red band
2006 5/23 1256     Converge  
  7/3   1280 15,359   Level = last rally:  take profit
  7/18 1236       Price leaves dark green band
  12/14   1425 17,708   Dark red band: take profit
2007 3/2 1387     Flat  
  5/9   1512 19,303 Flat  
  6/12 1493     Converge  
  7/19   1553 20,079 Flat  
  8/3 1450     Converge  
  8/24   1479 20,481   Price in dark red: take profit
  8/28 1432       Price in dark green band
  9/21   1525 21,811 Flat  
  10/24 1515     Converge  
  10/31   1549 22,300   Price in dark red: take profit
  11/12 1439       Price deep into dark green band
  12/10   1515 23,478   Level = last rally: take profit
2008 1/22 1310     Converge  
  2/1   1395 25,002   Level = last rally: take profit
  3/10 1273       Level = last rally 
  4/4   1370 26,907 Converge  
  4/15 1334       Price leaves buy bands
  4/29   1390 28,036 Flat  
  6/11 1335     Flat  
  7/2   1261 26,482   Stopped out = 5%
  7/15 1214       Deep into dark green: trend easing
  7/23   1282 27,965   Level = last rally: take profit
  9/15 1192     Converge  
  9/19   1255 29,443   Level = last rally: take profit
  10/10 0     Ignore Deep dark green: Steep dn trend
  10/15 0     Ignore Deep dark green: Steep dn trend
  10/27 848     Converge Trend easing
  11/4   1005 34,895   Level = last rally: take profit
  11/20 762       Level = last rally
  12/11   873 39,978 Converge  
  12/21 840     Flat  
2009 1/7   906 43,119 Converge Price leaves sell bands
  1/23 831     Converge  
  2/18   788 40,888   Stopped out = 5%
  3/5 682     Converge  
  3/27   815 48,861 Flat  
  7/10 879     Flat  
  7/28   979 54,420 Converge  
  10/2 1025       Level = last rally
  10/19   1198 63,605 Flat  
  11/2 1042     Converge  
  11/18   1109 67,695   Level = last rally: take profit
2010 2/9 1070       Price leaves buy bands
  3/17   1166 73,768 Flat  
  5/7 1110       Deep into dark green band
  6/18   1117 74,234 Flat  
  7/6 1028     Flat  
  7/27   1113 80,372 Flat  
  8/25 1055     Flat  
  9/16   1124 85,628 Converge  
  11/17 1178       Price in dark green band
2011 2/8   1323 96,168   Level = last rally: take profit
  3/16 1256       Level = exceeds last rally
  4/6   1335 102,217 Converge  
  6/10 1270     Converge  
  7/8   1343 108,092 Flat  
  8/11 1120       Price deep into dark green band
  9/1   1204 116,199 Flat  
  10/3 1099       Level = last rally 
  10/21   1238 130,896 Converge  
  11/25 1158       Level = last rally
  12/9   1255 141,860 Flat  
  12/19 1205       Price in dark green band
2012 1/26   1318 155,164 Flat  
  4/10 1358       Level = last rally
  5/1   1405 160,534 Converge  
  5/22 1316     Converge  
  9/18   1459 177,978 Flat  
  11/16 1359       Level = last rally
  12/20   1443 188,979   Level = last rally

To see all data in .pdf format click here

For the 30 day moving average settings we can make the following observations.

  • There were 44 switch cycles, one buy and one sell.
  • There were three losing trade when we were stopped out using a purchase minus 5% stop-loss line setting. The losses ranged from 5.0 to 5.5 percent.
  • Total value at the end of the study was $188,979.  That is 18.9 times our original hypothetical investment and is a 1,790% return over ten years.

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